The initial reaction of the Forex markets to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to their change in policy was to send the Japanese Yen firmer. However, as is so often the case, the headline tells the story that the financial markets want to hear but the devil is in the detail. When currency traders realised that it was not quite the ’end’ of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policy. The time period from now until the first positive interest rate could be up to a year in coming. The Japanese Yen has been under pressure since then. Whether there is the will to take the currency out of the 118 range is debatable in the very short term. The next targets for traders would be the early February high of 119.40 and then 121.40 which was the 2005 high. Only a close in Asian trading below 117.10 is likely to change traders attitude.
The British Pound has held steady and done its best impression of a crab. The Bank of England as expected did not change rates. We can expect more of the same with pressure if anything likely to come on the downside. A trade below 1.7280 would probably propel traders to look for 1.7125 and then to the 1.7050 area which was the low in December 2005.

The Euro has been content to trade in a relatively narrow range over the past few days. Any volatility in the US employment data could see an attempt to take out the stops which should be just above 1.1950 and below 1.1860. Given the nature of headline and revision to previous months data we could possibly see both sides taken out.
The Swiss Franc could benefit from geopolitical tensions over the weekend, but more realistically 1.3240 should be the top and 1.3080 the lower end of the range. Any sustained move out of this range would send fx traders looking for 1.3445 or 1.2890.

The Canadian Dollar is the subject of some severe profit taking. Coming under pressure from the twin threat of some dovish comments from the Bank of Canada and dipping gold and oil prices. If 1.1615 fails to hold then the next target would likely be 1.1710.
Watch out for revisions of previous months data to the US Unemployment data. The Nonfarm Payroll number is forecast at 200/ 210k.


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